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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! Spring got off to a dreary and damp start on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms produced downpours and pea size hail.
Meteorologist Sally Severson sent in this photo of pea size hail in Mequon.
If you have a photo to share please post it to the U-Local section of WISN.com Just click below.
Rain totals were impressive on Sunday with many viewers sending in totals around or in excess of 1.00″! Here are the totals through 10pm Sunday. If you have a total to share please post it to the comments section of the blog.
- Greenfield 1.35″
- Pleasant Prairie 1.25″
- Kenosha 1.25″
- Milwaukee 1.06″ (Daily record for March 20, topping 1.00″ set in 1933)
- Racine 1.05″
- Sheboygan 0.73″
- Fond du Lac 0.65″
The rain will depart later Sunday evening, and that should leave great weather in our area for Monday. Monday will likely be the best day of weather we see in possibly a week or more, so enjoy it!
The focus for Tuesday-Wednesday is on the part of the weather pattern that I love to call the ‘signature storm’. This storm has occurred three times in our cycling weather pattern(October 26-27, December 11-12, and February 1-2). All three times these were memorable storms for the Midwest.
Knowing that the weather pattern is cycling on roughly a 50 day cycle duration right now, the storm that will arrive this week was actually forecast back in February!
Here is how I described this storm back on February 27 right here in the Weather Watch 12 blog!
The ‘signature’ storm should return around March 22-24 and I am expecting a classic Spring storm with a severe weather outbreak in the warm sector, and a major winter storm in the cold sector.
Each time through the cycle over a half inch of liquid precipitation has been measured. This is one of the wettest storms in this year’s pattern.
The big question is what will southeast Wisconsin see? I would lean to a rain to snow, with gusty winds with this storm. Behind the storm a push of cold air will settle in to the region.
The first discussion of exact dates for this part of the pattern, and its return, was discussed back on February 3 in the blog!
I would expect this storm to return again, likely somewhere around March 22-25. Let the anticipation begin!
Using the LRC, or Lezak’s Recurring Cycle gives us a huge advantage in long range forecasting, but also in knowing if we should believe the models or not. Let’s look at how the coming storm for this week is taking shape.
Below is the surface forecast map from the HPC for 7 p.m. Tuesday. Notice the 992mb surface low by northwest Iowa. At this time the warm front is just south of our area. In this position showers and t-storms would be possible on Tuesday.
In the warm sector of the storm a large area has been highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center as being in a ‘slight risk’ for severe storms to occur on Tuesday. This will be adjusted as the final track of the low is still a little uncertain.
In the colder air over parts of North Dakota east through northern Wisconsin Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in place for Tuesday into Wednesday.
So this will likely be a ‘classic’ Spring storm!
Now if you were wondering how this storm compares to the one that is closest to the current seasonal position of the jet stream, we’ll go back to December 11. The low pressure center roughly 100 days from March 22 was in northwest Iowa. Feel free to compare this surface map to the forecast surface map for 7 p.m. Tuesday.
So what will be the most memorable part of this week’s ‘signature’ storm? Will it be severe weather? Or heavy snow? Only time will tell, but the storm should arrive with rain and thunderstorms in our area on Tuesday!
Please post your thoughts on this storm or anything weather related in the comments section of the blog.
Have a great day!