Weekend Forecast Improves

Sorry for the late post. Another crazy day at the big 1-2.

A few showers managed to finally break through the dry air late today. Overall, most areas receiving less than .10″ Madison actually picked up a quick 1/2″ of snow around midday. The air was just too warm in our area to get any snow. If you just looked at the 850 temperature line of zero or the 500 mb 540 line, you would have thought we would have had all snow. However, this general rule does not work out the same in late March and early April. Take a look at the following maps.

Notice the zero line well to our south. Now check out the 500 mb map today.

The 540 line is also well to our south. So what gives? Why did we get rain and not snow? This time of year, the rule of thumb changes considerably. You have to factor in the lower levels of the atmosphere generally being warmer than in the winter months. This can make for a tough forecast, but you can’t always count on the “general” rules.

Now, on to our thunderstorm chances. It may get a little dicey around here on Sunday night. The low pressure center is now forecast to be much farther north. That means it will be warmer on Sunday. The warmer we get, the better chances of severe weather making into southern Wisconsin. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s day three forecast.

Notice how close the slight risk is now to southern Wisconsin. Here is the probability map.

If we can get more of the warm and moist air far enough north, we could see some nasty overnight storms on Sunday night. Here is the RPM forecast for 3am on Monday morning.

The strong storms are forecast on this model to make it into Walworth, Racine, and Kenosha counties. This will definitely bear watching. Stay with weather watch 12 for the latest all weekend.

Now, on to the warm-up that was forecast using the LRC. The GFS has finally started catching on to the warmer air late next week.

I think we have a good chance of hitting the 60s before the next storm arrives next weekend. Something to definitely look forward to. Have a great weekend.

Mark

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