It was a beautiful day today with sunshine and a high of 50. This was only the second time in the last two weeks that our high has been average or above average.
This past weekend was quite interesting weather-wise. I was pretty convinced that we would warm up on Sunday. I was on a quick getaway with my wife to Lake Geneva and told my wife even though it was cold and rainy on Sunday morning, by the afternoon in Lake Geneva it would be nice enough to wear shorts. Needless to say, my wife was none too pleased with my forecast as we took a walk around parts of the lake with temperatures in the 40s. Twenty miles south the temperature was in the middle 70s. We actually thought about driving there so we could warm up. The best part was being able to sit on the balcony of our hotel on Sunday night and watch the light show. The lightning was incredible and I was happy the severe weather was kept to a minimum in our area. I do want to share some more hail pictures from our viewers. All the hail pictures are from the non-severe storm that hit around midday. It was an impressive storm with the hail lasting as long as ten minutes making it look like winter again. There were even a few accidents after cars slid on the ice-covered roads.
The above picture is from Gregg at 121st and Bluemound.
This one is from Ben in West Allis.
Finally, this one was from Michael in Shorewood.
Now, let’s talk about the weekend warm-up. Jeremy talked about this yesterday in the blog and we have watched this pattern happen before. Let’s go back to February 17th and 18th. The highs were 53 and 50. Go back another 50 or so days. December 30th and 31st it was 49 and 54. Pretty amazing how this works. This is the LRC. Lezak’s Recurring Cycle. Most of you know what this is and have followed it closely with Jeremy’s blog postings. If you don’t believe it is possible to give a long-range forecast using this theory,let me know. I was a huge sceptic, but now a big believer. What sounds too good to be true actually is true.
If you just followed the long-range models, last week you would have thought this coming weekend would only be in the 40s and 50s. Using the LRC, we knew the models would start coming around and they have. Here is the 2 meter tempeature forecast for midday Sunday. 70s are quite likely.
With the warm and moist air cruising in a strong low pressure center will move to our north and a trailing cold front will likely create a favorable environment for severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center is already putting our area on notice for Sunday.
This is still a long way away and the timing of the front, location of front is still unknown, but many of the conditions will likely be in our area for the possibility of severe weather. Stay tuned.