70s On The Way

It was a beautiful day today with sunshine and a high of 50. This was only the second time in the last two weeks that our high has been average or above average.

This past weekend was quite interesting weather-wise. I was pretty convinced that we would warm up on Sunday. I was on a quick getaway with my wife to Lake Geneva and told my wife even though it was cold and rainy on Sunday morning, by the afternoon in Lake Geneva it would be nice enough to wear shorts. Needless to say, my wife was none too pleased with my forecast as we took a walk around parts of the lake with temperatures in the 40s. Twenty miles south the temperature was in the middle 70s. We actually thought about driving there so we could warm up. The best part was being able to sit on the balcony of our hotel on Sunday night and watch the light show. The lightning was incredible and I was happy the severe weather was kept to a minimum in our area. I do want to share some more hail pictures from our viewers. All the hail pictures are from the non-severe storm that hit around midday. It was an impressive storm with the hail lasting as long as ten minutes making it look like winter again. There were even a few accidents after cars slid on the ice-covered roads.

 

The above picture is from Gregg at 121st and Bluemound.

This one is from Ben in West Allis.

Finally, this one was from Michael in Shorewood.

Now, let’s talk about the weekend warm-up. Jeremy talked about this yesterday in the blog and we have watched this pattern happen before. Let’s go back to February 17th and 18th. The highs were 53 and 50. Go back another 50 or so days. December 30th and 31st it was 49 and 54. Pretty amazing how this works. This is the LRC. Lezak’s Recurring Cycle. Most of you know what this is and have followed it closely with Jeremy’s blog postings. If you don’t believe it is possible to give a long-range forecast using this theory,let me know. I was a huge sceptic, but now a big believer. What sounds too good to be true actually is true.

If you just followed the long-range models, last week you would have thought this coming weekend would only be in the 40s and 50s. Using the LRC, we knew the models would start coming around and they have. Here is the 2 meter tempeature forecast for midday Sunday. 70s are quite likely.

With the warm and moist air cruising in a strong low pressure center will move to our north and a trailing cold front will likely create a favorable environment for severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center is already putting our area on notice for Sunday.

This is still a long way away and the timing of the front, location of front is still unknown, but many of the conditions will likely be in our area for the possibility of severe weather. Stay tuned.

Mark

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8 Responses

  1. Mark, I am sure had it been a typical early April you would have been golfing. Thanks for sharing those hail photos, the hail was impressive. I recall seeing hail accumulations of six inches or more in CO on TV a few months back and thinking how hail rarely accumulates at all around here. I have yet to experience accumulating hail but the photos from SE WI get me closer.

    It’s interesting how you and other meteorologists were skeptics of the LRC at first. I am sure there are some fundamental barriers that needed to be broken. For me, one w/o the barriers, I was a believer at first knowledge and research. I haven’t looked back since. The passion for learning seems never ending at this point. We gotta keep pushing the envelope!

    • Josh,

      The possibilities are endless with the LRC. My reluctance was it seemed too good to believe. After watching this more and more it is too good not to believe.

      As for golf, it would be nice to play again soon. Keep up all your great comments and research. You have truly grabbed this with both hands. Thanks for all your posts.
      Mark

  2. Hi Mark and Jeremy!

    My work has been super busy the last week and a half, and the rest of the week even more so, so I haven’t had a lot of time to stay in touch with you. Just wanting to let you know that even though I’m preaching at two funerals this week, the opportunity you afford me to read the blog has been a very pleasant, although brief, diversion and brought a smile to my face. Much needed!

    I admit to being envious of those who know so much more about the stuff of weather thatn I do, but even though a “layman” I wanted you to kow that I’ve learned alot and will keep trying to do so — and it is so much a needed way to shift my focus for a time. Keeps me from getting stressed out! Probably adds to your stress, though, at times 🙂

    One of the services I have this week is on Saturday, and it promises to be huge. With the warm-up is there any storm potential for that day? Just in case we need to be prepared to hold off the outdoor cemetery service???

    Thanks for “being there” for me … I consider you good friends and hope we can meet some day!

    Don in Reeseville

    • Don,

      Thank you for checking in, we always love to hear from you. Saturday looks dry in your area. Any threat for rain may occur Saturday night(questionable). So Saturday is dry and with your location well away from the lake you should enjoy a warm spring day.

      Enjoy the 70s on Sunday!

      Jeremy

  3. I love how one of the competition was basically calling you guys out and trumpeted their “No Frills” weather. Saying their wasn’t going ot be a warm up. As fo this morning they “adjusted” their forecast to have 70’s on Sunday, ahh goes to show that the LRC should be taken seriously by AMS’ers every where, and not knocked as a “gimmic”.

    • Bryan,

      Should be a warm weekend. The timing of the front, and possible t-storms will determine just how warm we get. I’ve dealt with doubters of the LRC for 5 years, so I will just keep using it the best way I know how to and hope it continues to bring success. Again, anyone can use it.

      Jeremy

  4. Some websites i’m seeing online are already forcasting a Major severe weather outbreak for this weekend and we are included in on this. How confident are you that we are going to see a severe outbreak around here? I’m hoping for some good thunderstorms, just hopefully no tornadoes!

    • Nicole,

      I’m working on a new blog now. Keep in mind, there has been a strong cold front and storm system each time through the pattern. So severe chances do exist this weekend.

      Jeremy

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