Weekend Warm-Up & Storm Chances

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  The weather buzz over the past several days has been on the big weekend warm-up.  For anyone that follows this blog, you know the April 7-11 timeframe was a date range we highlighted in FEBRUARY as to when the first 70s of the season may be possible!

The warm-up is still on target.  However, the models are still shifting around the position of low pressure, and also the timing of thunderstorms.  Those details as the weekend nears will be handled with the latest data on WISN 12 News.

For the big picture, let’s look at what should be the warmest day this weekend.  The 12Z GFS is forecasting temperatures in the 60s at 7am Sunday!  Just click below to see the forecast temperatures.

GFS Temperatures Sunday April 10

Along with the warm air, moisture will be on the increase.  The highest dew points so far this season will surge into southern Wisconsin.  At this early point many models are forecasting dew points in the 60s…including the GFS.

Below is the 12Z GFS dew point forecast map valid at 7am Sunday.  It may feel ‘sticky’, or ‘humid’.

GFS Dew Points Sunday

With warm, moist air in place, both a warm front lifting north, and a cold front pushing in will trigger showers and t-storms this weekend.  The Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlook is highlighting our area as a spot that could see severe weather this weekend. 

Weekend Convective Outlook

Here are some factors that will impact our temperatures and severe weather chances this weekend.

  • Position of warm and cold fronts
  • Timing of thunderstorms
  • Dew points
  • Instability – amount of sunshine
  • Surface winds

We will start to get more specific on the timing of thunderstorms in the coming days, and also the potential for severe weather.  Remember, you can track rain and thunderstorms day or night with our interactive radar, just click here.

Please post any questions or thoughts that you have to the comments section of the blog.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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8 Responses

  1. Jeremy~I had just looked at the HPC QPF maps for the weekend rain totals, the amounts are a bit worrisome. Do you think we could see 2+ inches on top of the Thursday night rain?

    • Lori,

      I never say never when it comes to rainfall amounts in the spring and summer. The reason is when dew points get into the 60s or higher, the storms contain a lot of moisture. If they train, or stall over one location it is not difficult to pick up a quick inch or more of rain. I don’t think heavy rain would be widespread above 2″, but we will certainly monitor this possibility.

      Jeremy

  2. Yep here we go. Flooding in the basement.

    • Let’s hope not. Still many questions on amounts of precipitation. If it moves through quickly enough we would not have that much rainfall. We will give rainfall forecasts as the storm gets closer.

      Mark

  3. Jeremy – First I would like to thank you for posting these blogsand I wish WBAY in Green Bay would post blogs like this seeing as how I currently live in Green Bay. I continue to learn new things each day. My question is on the convective outlook what is the difference between the red and the blue outline represent?

    Zach

    • Zach,

      The D4 is for Saturday and D5 is for Sunday. Great to have you as a part of the blog, please feel free to comment more.

      Jeremy

  4. Mark/Jeremy…Nice call on the warm up!! The family is looking forward to it. The crocuses are coming along nicely. Daffodills are 2-3″ high, maybe some flowers by early-mid next week. The only concerning issue is the flooding possible this weekend in low areas and near major streams and any rivers. The ground is many spots is completely saturated and 1-2″ of rain might lead to some flooding. Some folks I know are a bit worried. Keep us posted. Thanks. Matthew

    • Thanks for the note, Matthew. Heavy rain is definitely concerned. It all depends on how the storms line up. If they are in a quick moving line on Sunday it would just be a brief heavy downpour. However, if they line up more east to west we could get 1-2″ of rain.

      Mark

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