Moderate Risk For Severe Storms Sunday

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

A quick update now, but look for a more detailed blog on the severe weather risk for Sunday in the blog Saturday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated the convective outlook for Sunday.  Southeast Wisconsin remains in a moderate risk for severe storms to develops.  Threats on Sunday would be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.  Below is the updated outlook for Sunday.

SPC Day 2 Outlook

As of this writing on Saturday, the warm air was just beginning to push north.  Below is the surface map from 2pm Saturday.  Cool 40s in Milwaukee, but 70s and 80s were not far away.

Surface Map April 9, 2011

Another key is that dew points are well into the 60s over northern Missouri.  This moisture will push into our area on Sunday.  So not only will it feel humid, there will be ample moisture for storms to work with.

The first round of storms will arrive after midnight in our viewing area.  These storms could produce hail and strong winds.  We will be here virtually for the next 36 hours making sure that if any storms do turn severe, the Weather Watch 12 team will alert you on WISN.  To track storms day or night just click the interactive radar below.

Interactive Radar

Have a great day and look for another update later Saturday evening.  Make sure to post any thoughts or questions to the comments section of the blog.

Jeremy Nelson

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19 Responses

  1. Does this storm line up with the February 20-22 snowstorm, using the LRC?

    • Robert,

      I think this storm is around Feb. 18-20. The seasonal dynamics are better back in November and somewhat in January. We didn’t have a snowpack at the end of December.

      Jeremy

    • radar loop from feb 18-22

    • Ah heck.


      The previous two to that as well. 🙂

      • Josh,

        Some things in those loop show why I’m not completely sold on severe wx Sunday(at least a huge outbreak here).

        Jeremy

  2. I figured this kind of scenario was what could be expected out of the next signature storm, but I’m not surprised to see it happening in this part of the pattern with so much warm air in play.

  3. Hey Jeremy!

    Haven’t commented here in a while, but tomorrow is looking big. Dr. Greg Forbes from the Weather Channel gave us a 8/10 TOR:CON Value (80% within 50 miles of a point that a tornado will occur), the highest he’s given out all year.

    Local weather, in my opinion, is way better than TWC when there’s severe weather. I’ll definitely be tuning in tomorrow when it happens. Stay safe everyone!

    Bryan

    • Bryan,

      When it comes to mesoscale events like severe weather(hail, tornadoes, ect.) I like to stay general until the day of the event. The TOR:CON number has busted time and time again for them. But maybe it’s right. So many things go into making or breaking a severe weather outbreak. So while pieces are in place, we’ll have to see if everything comes together on Sunday.

      Jeremy

      • Jeremy,

        Thanks for your input. I know it was a 5 when the Muskego tornado rolled 1 mile north of me last June.

        This does bear watching, though!

  4. Mark was talking about a few days ago that he didn’t know if the cells would run east/west or run along a squall line. He said rain totals would be significantly less in a squall line. Is there any more certainty on the amount of rain we could see this weekend? I am hoping not much, I really don’t know how much more rain my yard can take.

    • or if we will see a squall line or just individual cells that pop up and run along a line?

      • Craig,

        I still think most ingredients will be in place on Sunday. But will they all come together? If individual supercells develop then the chances for tornadoes would be highest. If it is a squall line, then hail and wind may be bigger factors. We know what is possible, but I want to see where the outflow boundaries are Sunday morning and where the low/fronts settle.

        Jeremy

      • Can I ask why how and why one develops over another? What happens to cause a squall? ANd what happens to have a supercell? Thanks!!!

  5. What good are your updates if we are sleeping ??

    • Rich,

      We have viewers up at all times reading the blog. I posted the SPC outlook earlier but wanted to see some of the other runs before doing an evening update. I think many people value the updates in the blog, no matter what time they are posted at. I should get one done in the next hour or so.

      Jeremy

  6. Ok !! Thanks ..

  7. Am I the only one having issues accessing the NWS MKX site?

  8. Ok.. I’m scared:-(

    • Brandi,

      Please keep in mind severe storms usually hit isolated areas and there is no guarantee that a major severe wx outbreak will occur on Sunday. If you keep it tuned to WISN 12 we’ll make sure everyone is aware if severe storms are about to hit.

      Jeremy

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