Severe Weather Risk Late Sunday

***Watch WISN 12 for updates on the potential for severe weather!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  Summer for a day!  Temperatures surged into the 80s across almost all of southeast Wisconsin Sunday afternoon.

The heat is helping to destabilize the atmosphere, and an approaching cold front and some upper level support will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and into Sunday evening.  We are on Weather Watch today and tonight for severe weather.  If severe weather does develop watch for updates on WISN 12.

Remember you can track the storms at home with our interactive radar.  Just click below

Interactive Radar

Below is the incredible warm that covered the area around 1pm Sunday.  81 in Milwaukee…I’m loving it!  Milwaukee is marked with the black ‘*’.

Surface Sunday 1pm April 10

The warm and increasingly humid airmass was already beginning to fire thunderstorms well west of our area around 2pm Sunday.  A good way to detect where thunderstorms may develop, or are already developing is to look at the visible satellite.  The visible satellite just after 1pm Sunday showed the clouds building in eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.  This is the area that could see strong to severe storms first.

Visible Satellite Sunday April 10

The greatest threat for severe storms in southeast Wisconsin is between 5pm and 11pm.  During this time severe storms COULD move into the area.  And IF any of these cells are discrete supercells they could turn severe quickly, and with a lot of shear or winds helping the storms to rotate in our area, any storm could produce isolated tornadoes.  I think the greatest tornado threat for the remainder of Sunday is from Madison to Oshkosh and points west.  A strong tornado is even possible in this area. 

The day 1 tornado outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is also along these lines.  Keep in mind the percentages represent the chances of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  So while there is a chance today(certainly higher than most severe weather days), the odds are still small when viewed from the percentages.

Day 1 Tornado Outlook

The severe threats for late Sunday include the chance for large hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes in our viewing area.  While I mention the threat for isolated torandoes, that is ONLY if we see supercell thunderstorms move into this part of the state.  Right now that threat is highest from southwest Wisconsin into the northern part of the state – closer to low pressure and also a warm front.

If you have a severe weather report to pass along to the Weather Watch 12 team, please post it to the comments section of BOTH the blog and our Facebook page: Weather Watch 12

Also, if you take any pictures, even if it is just of a cool cloud.  Post them to the U-Local section of WISN.com  Just click below to be taken to the U-Local page.

U-Local

Watch for updates throughout the day and evening on WISN 12, and if warnings are issued we will alert everyone during programming until the threat passes.  Hopefully no severe weather develops, but if it does we will keep you updated. 

Stay with WISN 12 for the latest!

Jeremy Nelson

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13 Responses

  1. I hope you’re enjoying that 81. It’s 58 in Sheboygan.

    • Robert,

      The automated weather station in Sheboygan is reporting 75. However in Port Washington it is 49. Just drive a couple of miles inland and it will be warm.

      Jeremy

  2. What are the chances today’s storm activity misses us entirely to the north?

  3. Knock knock. Who’s there? PDS. In Wisconsin in April? WOW. Then again…on New Years, it raked St. Louis with tornadoes, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised…

    I pray it stays to the NW of MKE.

  4. Tell me if I am wrong but looking at all these radar loops it looks a lot like last night. It is almost like Highway 33 north will get all the rain again.

  5. The storms have begun to fire up! Lots of development on the southern end of the line…. Looks like we’ll have some stronger storms if it continues to strengthen and develop to the south in Western WI and Iowa.

    • I’ve looked at the 3 separate loops of the radar now, and unless there is some significant development south of where they are now, it sets up the same way as last night IMO. East/northeast. Even if they turn east they barely clip the 12 viewing area. I think the nasty stuff stays just to the north…again.

      • Bummer, looks like you’re right for now anyway! Any chance we’ll get the storms that are setting up in IL?

  6. Why do I get the feeling the storms are going to north of us, like they did last night and SE wisconsin might get missed again. 😦 I don’t want tornados around here, but I’m up for a good thunderstorm.

    • You seem right. A good thunderstorm can wait until the rivers catch up to season because I know there is a good chunk of people pretty nervous about rain right now.

  7. The large jet streak ahead of the ULL seems to be slowing the progression of the frontal zone just a hair.

  8. 80s today felt great. First time sunroof was opened since October (except for the night the Packers won the Super Bowl). Severe weather looks to be going mostly to the north.

    • Patrick,

      We’ll continue to watch that line nearing our area as of 8pm. Could produce some hail, strong winds in spots.

      Jeremy

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