Spring Interrupted

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest on rain and snow chances!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  In this blog entry we’ll update the snow forecast for early Monday, and also look at more rain and snow for Tuesday and Wednesday.  It seems like spring has been put on hold and will remain on hold for the next 5-7 days.

By early Monday, a wintry mix of rain and snow will change to all snow.  The timing looks to be after 1 a.m. in the Milwaukee metro area.  This will be a fairly narrow band of moisture, so parts of the viewing area will see little or no snow, and others enough to blanket the ground.  For the most current radar image or loop just click below.

Interactive Radar

Below is the snowfall forecast for early Monday.  The wet, slushy snow will fall mainly between 1 a.m. and 7 a.m. in our viewing area.

Snow Forecast Monday

On average 1″ or less is expected in Milwaukee, with slightly higher totals to the south.  Farther north around Sheboygan and Fond du Lac there may be a snow shower, but the accumulating snow should stay south of that area.  Within the 1″-3″ band I would lean toward 1 or 2 inches for most of that area.  Maybe an isolated spot see’s a total near 3″.

Please keep in mind a slight shift north or south will have an impact on snow totals.  The 1″-3″ range is only about 30-40 miles wide.  Forecasting snow this late in April is like threading a needle because temperatures are always critical.  Readings to start Monday morning will be around freezing.

By Monday night and Tuesday yet another storm will take aim at our region.  This one will produce mainly rain, but wet snowflakes or some sleet cannot be ruled out!

Here is the forecast position of the low pressure area Tuesday night just after midnight.  This is a ‘classic’ spring storm with severe weather in the warm sector and heavy snow on the backside.  It looks like Milwaukee will just see a chilly rain. 

Storm April 20, 2011

As that storm lifts northeast, some snow showers may be possible in southeast Wisconsin on Wednesday!

The best advice for the next several days is keep an umbrella and brush handy.  That way you will be prepared for anything Mother Nature throws our way.

Please leave your thoughts and questions in the comments section of the blog.  Watch WISN 12 News from 10-11pm and again starting at 4:30am as we track the snow and our next storm.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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10 Responses

  1. Once again your long range analysis using LRC is on target. Makes me look smart for the friends who aren’t familiar with it.

    • Adrian,

      Thanks for reading. The LRC isn’t perfect, but the best method I’ve seen to make accurate long range forecasts. The storm early this week was discussed in the April forecast, but I was hoping and thinking the low may sneak a little farther north. I guess we stay cool and wet, but keep the nasty storms out of our area.

      Jeremy

  2. I don’t think we’re going to have a Spring this year. Shades of 2009. Makes me concerned about Summer now also.

    • Geoff,

      Not much to enjoy so far this spring. I’ll put out the long range summer forecast in about 7-10 days. Here’s a hint, I’m not thinking warmer than average:)

      Jeremy

  3. You should do a poll on where people draw the line between winter and spring because there seem to be some extremely different views on the subject. A lot of people share your view, but if I was writing the blog I would be saying spring is on hold for 3 days because the other four days of that forecast is something you would rarely find in winter.

    • Good point Daniel. We didn’t even get close to the 40s in January. But with average highs creeping toward the upper 50s, highs in the low to mid 40s is wearing on people.

      Once we get past Easter there is a little hope for warmer temperatures.

      Jeremy

    • Daniel G, I have a definitive line I draw.

      First Day of Winter represents a daily max temp equal or below 32°F and a snow depth of 1″ or greater for several (6) consecutive days.

      Last Day of Winter represents a daily max temp equal or above 32°F and a snow depth less than 1″ for several (6) consecutive days.

      Granted our seasons are not so cut and dry, but I like to keep records and stats and this gives me the opportunity.

      Jeremy, I hit the plots and maps this weekend. Seems the storm Tue/Wed lines up well with what I thought this last storm did??? Getting lost in the LRC is easy and fun! http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

  4. Monday, April 18, 2011 9:03 am

    Weather report: Lawn is ‘snow covered & slippery’, est approx 1 inch. Likewise for most of the other non-manmade scenery around here.

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  5. Hi, Jeremy —

    Your forecast for Dodge County is — as usual — right on the money! You did not include us in any snowfall total for this “system” and that’s what we got — zip — zero — zilch. It’s quite cold, feels damp, and the wind has picked up, and is very overcast, but all surfaces are dry — other than where the sump pumps are discharging!!!

    Don in Reeseville

    • Just me again —

      Forgot to say that I am glad that, as of this point in time at least, Easter looks dry. The old saying that the senior members of my church remind me of every year — and I have one of them who turns 100 this week — is that “rain on Easter, rain for seven Sundays.” And it usually ends up being true!!

      Don

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