Rain Returns…Chilly Spring Continues

I hope everyone enjoyed the beautiful Monday. It was nice to get plenty of sunshine and a comfortable day.  There is very little sunshine in the forecast for the rest of the week.

April continues to be a brutal month for severe weather and flooding to our south. Take a look at the severe weather reports for the month.

There have been over 5000 reports of severe weather so far this month. April will go down in the record books for number of tornadoes. Over 500 tornadoes have been reported so far and there will be many more tonight and tomorrow.

This has been an incredible month of severe weather especially over the last week and a half. A persistent pattern with a stationary front draped across the South-Central United States combined with a strong jet stream over the same area has led to day after day of severe weather and very heavy rain. Major to catastrophic flooding is possible in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana. Here is the forecast for rain for the next two days. This is on top of an area that is completely saturated.

We have a fair amount of rain in our forecast as well, but the flooding threat is minimal. Here is our local high-resolution model for rain.

I expect around 1-2″ of rain for most areas. Most of that rain will fall late tonight and Tuesday morning. We are fortunate to be north of the jet stream so the severe weather threat stays to our south.

If you think this has been a cold spring, you are correct. This is the coldest start to spring that we have had for the last ten years. Take a look at the chart and notice the huge difference between last spring and this spring.

Temperatures for first 35 days of spring at Milwaukee in the past 10 years:

Average Overall Temp   Average High Temp
 Rank  T (°F)  Year    Rank  T (°F)  Year
 1  39.2  2011    1 45.9  2011
 2  41.1  2009    2 48.4  2009
 3  42.0  2002    3 49.9  2002
 3  42.0  2003    3 49.9  2008
 5  42.4  2008    5 50.0  2003
 6  44.9  2007    6 53.1  2007
 7  45.3  2005    7 54.3  2005
 8  45.6  2004    8 54.6  2006
 9  46.3  2006    9 55.1  2004
 10  47.2  2010    10 56.3  2010

The average high temperatures have been almost 10 degrees colder this spring vs. last spring. A big thank you to the National Weather Service in Sullivan for the spring comparison.

Make sure you follow our rain and storms tonight and tomorrow on 12 news at 10pm and again Tuesday morning starting at 4:30 AM. Interactive radar is always available to track the storms on wisn.com/irad.

Thanks for reading and have a great night.

Mark

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11 Responses

  1. Monday, April 25, 2011 8:26 pm

    Hi Mark,

    Spent some time taking pictures around the house today. Also looked through a bunch I had taken last year. Quite a difference! Last years pictures were taken on the 15th. Based on what I’ve seen, looks to me we’re at least 12 to 16 days ‘behind’ from last year. Do you figure that might mean we’re about a week behind of a ‘normal’ year? Given the forecast for the next week or so, I think we might even fall a bit more behind.

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Hey, Tony,

      We would love to see your pics. Feel free to share on FB or send to my email. mbaden@hearst.com

      Compared to average, I would say we are about a week to week 1/2 behind on flowers, etc.

      Thanks.
      Mark

      • Hi again Mark,

        I’m not a FB or U-Local member. Will send you some via your address. What’s best for you with regards to type and size? I can send via an inserted picture as part of a regular email, or as *.jpg attachments. No need for a ‘speedy’ reply, do so when you have a moment to spare.

        Cordially,
        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

      • Tony,

        jpegs are fine. Thanks.

        Mark

      • Mark,

        Will get some pictures to you between now and noon tomorrow. Will be sending ‘jpgs’ sized to 1024 x 768. Once you’ve got them, you can let me know if that size is ok or if larger or smaller is better.

        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

        p.s. Got my rain gauge all washed, dried, and reinstalled in it’s bracket.

  2. Rainfall report: As of 9am, Total = 1.37 inches.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Thanks for the update Tony!

      Jeremy

      • Tuesday, April 26, 2011 1:21 pm

        Hi Jeremy,

        You’re welcome for the update(s).

        I checked the rainfall amount report from the Kenosha airport. This seems to be another instance where their number and mine vary by quite a bit, almost 0.5 inches in this case. I’m quite confident that the variation is actual and that I’ve provided you with a valid number for my location. Please feel free to question any info I might be submitting to you.

        Cordially,
        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

      • Tony,

        Rain totals can vary over a short distance, so please keep sending your totals along!

        Jeremy

  3. Hi Mark and Jeremy —

    In terms of the LRC, what part of the pattern is repeating with all this rain? Is this the “spring” issue of the pattern when we had all the cloudy days and “nusiance” snows during winter?

    Also, when would you advise when it might be dry enough to get outside and do some spring yard work? It always seems that the timing of the Lent/Easter season and the extra work it requires of me keeps me in the office on the nice days — and when I do have some “down time” to be out of the office — we get the rainy days. Sigh…

    Thanks for responding!

    Don in Reeseville

    PS: Jeremy — I made it through the “busy week” last week in good shape. Thanks for the words of concern and support you shared with me about that last week. It means alot!

    PPS: How’s the new TV set coming along?

    • Don,

      Remember the January part of the pattern that brought lots of periods of snow? We are moving through the January part of the pattern now. While I thought April would be active I underestimated the amount of rain for the area.

      I’m working on the May-July forecast now and hope to get that in the blog this week(maybe Thursday?). In the meantime, I still believe the signature storm is the 2nd week of May(9th-13th), so take those dates and you can find where we are at in the pattern in relation to past parts of the cycle.

      Glad the Easter season turned out well for you! Thanks for stopping by Don!

      The new set I think debuts later this week!

      Jeremy

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