Frosty to Wet

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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  If you are a fan of us on Facebook, or would like to be, please take a moment and like us at ‘Wisconsin Weather Updates’.  This is a new page, so check it out!

Weatherwise, what a miserable day on Tuesday with clouds, cold temperatures and even some sprinkles and sleet around the area.

As skies clear out, early Wednesday will start with areas of frost, especially inland.  Temperatures should drop into the low 30s in many areas.  Below is the RPM temperature forecast map.  Notice that areas hugging the lakeshore will stay just a shade above 32.

RPM 6am Wednesday May 4

If you have potted plants outside I would advise bringing them in.  And if you got an early start on your garden, make sure to cover any plants that a frost or freeze could damage.

After Wednesday morning the chilly weather will depart.  Replacing it will be another storm system for Thursday.  This one will bring a chance of rain to the area.  No severe weather is expected, but more dreary and damp weather can be expected.

Below is the surface map at 7 a.m. Thursday.  Rain will be on our doorstep, so keep an umbrella handy that day.

Surface Thursday May 5

If you are curious whether the cool and damp weather will continue into summer, check out the long range forecast from now through summer.  Just click below.

Summer Forecast

Eventually it will warm up, for more on the week ahead check out WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm.  Drop any thoughts or questions you may have in our interactive comments section.  

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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14 Responses

  1. Hey guys!

    Just wondering why you guys made a new facebook page. Why didn’t you just rename the old one?

    Bryan

    • Bryan,

      From what I understand you can’t just rename a ‘fan’ page. Our company is trying to make things more streamlined, so Wisconsin Weather Updates is our new home. We hope everyone will join us there!

      Jeremy

  2. Hi, Jeremy —

    I posted a weather report from Reeseville as the last post to yesterday’s blog, which just read this afternoon. For whatever it may be worth, and if you want to check it out.

    Thanks!

    Don

    • We got it. Thanks, Don. Nice day on Wednesday.

      Mark

  3. I appreciated your May and Summer forecast. I noticed it was a little less detailed by date for May than usual for your monthly forecasts with the LRC. Instead of hitting only the highlights (or lowlights, in the sense of likelihood of severe weather), how about a May forecast with a bit more detail (for example, what might be expected for the first nine days of the month…you start with ninth through 13th on the current version; and 19th through month-end…you stop at the 18th)? You do such an extraordinary job that I’ve come to enjoy as much detail as possible.

    • Adrian,

      This forecast is not as detailed because the overall flow will continue to weaken as we enter summer. While I believe the waves are still cycling, the 500 mb flow becomes very weak in the summer, so often the stronger features are most noticeable. Also, by late July or August the pattern fades before a new LRC pattern sets up in October.

      This forecast focused on the big picture with fine details mixed in. Also, since the forecast was issued on the 30th, the 7 day forecast covered almost all days up to the next signature storm. Good questions and thanks for reading.

      Jeremy

  4. Tuesday, May 3, 2011

    Hi Jeremy,

    Would like for you to know that even though I’ve commented little on the ‘LRC’, I’m following along with considerable interest. I’m pretty sure I understand the ‘basics’ where a pattern sets up and then repeats. Also I think I understand the idea of the ‘signature storm’ which I take to mean a storm that confirms or validates the cycle is in effect and has been correctly determined. Is that close???
    One of the parts I’m in a bit of a ‘fog’ about though is how does one decide when during that initial period (Oct – Nov) the pattern begins. I’m assuming for any given year, any day could conceivably be a valid ‘first day’ of that years LRC. Or does it work such that the (Oct – Nov) period is fixed and it’s mostly a matter of looking for the first match-ups that occur after that time?
    Would appreciate any info you might have time to supply.

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Tony,

      To be honest the pattern doesn’t exactly start on October 1…that date is our estimate. I’ve found times where I can track features back to around September 20. But other times not until around October 10.

      So October 1 is a good starting point. With that said, I’ve also tracked features into August, but other times only until mid to late July. So between late July and the end of September the pattern is truly in flux.

      Jeremy

      • Wednesday, May 4, 2011 1:02 pm

        Jeremy,

        Ok, I now understand that Oct 1 is not inscribed in stone. I think I also understand that ‘signature storms’ don’t necessarily arrive precisely to the minute on schedule but can (and do) vary by a few days one way or another within any given iteration of the cycle.
        From the long range forecast you presented a few days ago, you stated (correctly I might add), that major events have occurred on a cycle of 46 – 52 days. The first such date was Oct 26 -27. Is that date(s) the first or last day of the aprox 50 day LRC for this 2010-2011 season? If not, what are you using as for the starting date for this season’s LRC from which all the following iterations are reckoned from? I’m confused in that 50 days prior to Oct 26 would be somewhere near the first week of September.
        Note: I’m not trying to attempt to do my own forecasting, but merely trying to arrive at a better understanding of the LRC strictly from the perspective of being an interested bystander.

        Cordially,
        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

      • Tony,

        The cycle length is generally not known until December. At that point I go back to parts of the pattern in October and November, and then project forward. Think of October dates as all starting points.

        Jeremy

      • Wednesday, May 4, 2011 11:08 pm

        Jeremy,

        Thanks for the replies. I was ‘hung up’ on trying to understand how you could determine the length of a ‘LRC’ from simply looking at the roughly 40 day sample from Oct – Nov.

        Cordially,
        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • I’m also interested in the ‘first day’ determination of the LRC because I’m still trying to figure out why the cold first half of Oct 2009 and the warm first half of October 2010 don’t seem to have continued in subsequent cycles.

  5. Thanks Jeremy, I love watching the weather on WISN Channel 12. You are the only weather channel I watch…I am a teacher’s aide and walk a mile to (work) school every week day. We also, have a little concession business in the summer so, we watch the weather religiously because, we need to know how our business will be affected by the weather. Thank you for having this website. Cindy Haeffel, Wind Lake, WI

    • Cindy,

      Thanks for watching! We love talking about the weather and the blog gives us a chance to expand on the 3 minutes we get during our tv segments. Good luck with you business this summer!

      Jeremy

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