Mother’s Day & Warmer, Stormy Week Ahead

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather updates!***

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Weather Watch 12 blog!  The entire weather team wants to send out a big Happy Mother’s Day wish to all the moms in our area! 

In this blog entry we will talk about the Mother’s Day forecast, and also the big warm-up around Tuesday-Wednesday, and also the chance of strong storms.

It has been a real challenge to get a decent day around southeast Wiscosin, but Sunday looks dry from sunrise to sunset.  Great news for anyone with outdoor plans.  One forecast issue to be aware of on Sunday is the large spread of temperatures that will exist.  The big temperature difference will be a result of a general easterly wind.  The easterly wind will push refrigerated air right above the chilly Lake Michigan waters over lakeshore counties.

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The result will be the dreaded ‘cooler by the lake’.  Inland areas that avoid the cooling effects should see highs top out in the mid-60s.  Here is a look at forecast temperatures at 2pm Sunday.  This model forecast is from our high resolution RPM model.  Just click to enlarge.

Notice the mid-60s well inland, along the lake mainly 50s.

RPM Mothers Day Temps 

Enjoy Sunday, because rain chances creep back into the forecast by Monday.  A large storm system will begin to impact our weather on Monday.  The first impact will be a shift in wind direction to an east-southeast direction, and it will become windy.

Little disturbances will also race along the dividing line between really warm-humid air, and cooler-drier air over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  The battle zone could spark some showers and t-storms on Monday, and even a chance on Tuesday.  Not all day rains, but keep up-to-date with our latest forecasts.

The main storm will lift into the Midwest on Wednesday.  This is when I expect a warm front to lift north of our area resulting in high temperatures around 80!

Below is the HPC surface forecast map Wednesday morning at 7 a.m.  This has the warm front on our doorstep, with low pressure over North Dakota, and another near the panhandle of Oklahoma.

Surface Forecast Map May 11

With warm, moist air flowing into the upper Midwest on Wednesday, and a strong storm system colliding with it, I expect a good chance for showers and t-storms Wednesday and Wednesday night.  From my standpoint this has the look of a system that could produce severe weather in the Midwest, including Wisconsin.

Predicting severe weather more than a day or two out is tricky to say the least.  But this storm has produced some of the most memorable weather events in Wisconsin since last October.  And I expect it to make headlines again!  This is why this storm in the pattern has been given the name the ‘signature’ storm.

The Storm Prediction Center issues long range severe weather outlooks for day 4 through 8.  When I looked at this map on Saturday I was a bit surprised.  The only areas highlighted this far out are locations in the central and southern Plains for Wednesday, day 5. 

SPC 4-8 Day Outlook May

I expect a much larger part of the Midwest to be added to this outlook as we near the early part of this week.  Weather Watch 12 will keep you updated on the track and type of weather expected with this storm here, Facebook, Twitter, and most importantly on WISN 12 News.

If you have thoughts or questions, please leave them in the comments section of the blog!

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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7 Responses

  1. On behalf of all the Mom’s out there…Thank you for the good weather for Mother’s Day! Looking forward to warmer weather ahead. Cindy

    • Cindy,

      A perfect day is tough to get in this current pattern, but Sunday does look nice! Enjoy and thanks for reading.

      Jeremy

  2. Hi Jeremy —

    Just wanted to let you know that we had a great brat fry fundraiser on Saturday. I really don’t think we could have asked for better weather — not too hot –not too cool–and just enough breeze to keep us grillers from overheating 🙂 And financially, we did great too! And, I even got yard work done afterwards! So, thanks to you and Mark for guiding me with the weather updates! Some day I may actually get bold enough to start telling others my little secrets I’ve been learning from you.

    Am out of town learning things for my “real job” Mon-thru Wed this week, so will catch up with you when I get back.. Sounds like we’ll be back home just as or just before sig. storm hits in its’ fullness.

    Have a great Sunday and a great week!

    Don {Reeseville}

    • Don,

      Great to hear your event was a success! I hope the money you raised helps where it is needed most.

      Check back in Wednesday, the middle of the week looks exciting!

      Jeremy

  3. congrats on your 2nd place finish 🙂

    • Dan,

      You’re spoiling the announcement this evening:) I’ll tell everyone about the 2nd place finish later.

      Jeremy

      • Whatever the announcement is about, you should have been in first place!

        Don

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