Tricky Forecast…Timing The Rain

***Watch WISN 12 News at 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  Make sure to read the entire blog, we have some great news to pass along from the entire Weather Watch team!

A new week is here and along with it numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms.  But like with many rain chances, they are not all created equal!

In this entry we’ll go over the timing of rain, and when chances are the highest.  We’ll also touch on the chances for severe weather.

The first possibility of rain moves in for Monday.  Most of the day will be dry and breezy, but later in the afternoon, more likely the evening, as warm, moist air flows north a few showers and isolated t-storms will be possible. 

Below is the RPM forecast map at 11pm Monday.  Notice the green, that represents scattered showers.  There may be a few thunderstorms too.

RPM Rain Late Monday May 9

This round of rain does not look all that heavy, especially if thunderstorms are few and far between.  Round 1 should stay under 1 or 2 tenths of an inch of rain.  Again, if t-storms pop up they can turn the rainfall forecast upside down in a hurry.  The threat for a shower or t-storms will linger into Tuesday morning.  Again, Monday is mainly dry until late, so don’t cancel your plans, just have a plan ‘B’ ready.

While there is a threat of a few t-storms late Monday, I don’t think they will reach severe levels in our area.  Certainly we’ll keep close tabs, but the threat area is farther southwest.  Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s day 1 convective outlook.  Notice the severe threat over Illinois.

Day 1 Outlook May 9

By Tuesday the flow of warmer air will continue to try and push in.   This day should produce a crazy spread of temperatures.  With a gusty southeast wind blowing of the nearly 40 degree Lake Michigan waters, lakeshore areas may push into the 60s for a time, but could drop back in the 50s.

Areas just inland a bit could see 70s, while farther inland 80 can’t be ruled out.  Look at the RPM’s high resolution temperature forecast map at 4pm Tuesday.  Around 64 in Milwaukee, with yes, 84 pretty close to Whitewater and Watertown.  This is just one model we use in making forecasts.  The 80s would depend greatly on cloud cover that day.

RPM Temperatures Tuesday May 10

Rain chances are the lowest on Tuesday, with a morning shower possible(leftover from Monday night).  Then as the warmest air pushes north a few showers in the afternoon.  Overall Tuesday looks like it will have lots of dry time too!

The days that concern me most are Wednesday and Thursday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible both days with a good deal of moisture and heat in place.  I think Milwaukee warms into the 70s each day, and some inland 80s can’t be ruled out.  A lot will depend on how much rain and cloud cover exists, along with surface winds(will the lake keep some spots cooler?).

Below is the rainfall forecast at 4pm Wednesday.  Numerous showers and t-storms are the region. 

RPM Rain Wednesday May 11

At this point it is nearly impossible to pin down rain timing for Wednesday-Thursday, but every 3 hours we get a new model run of information.  So tune to WISN 12 News for the latest hour by hour forecast.

Also key on Wednesday and Thursday will be how strong the storms get.  I think one or both of the days could produce strong to severe storms close to home.  That aspect of the storm will be dealt with in more detail in the coming days.

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Finally, it is with great pride that I announce that the Weather Watch 12 blog took home 2nd place in Saturday’s Wisconsin Broadcasters Awards in the category of ‘New Media – Best Blog’!  The Weather Watch 12 blog was up against other TV and RADIO station blogs across the state.  1st place was a radio station blog.  I’m very proud that in one years time the entries that have been compiled drew an audience for us to share our passion for weather with, and was recognized by the review board!

I want to give a big shout out to Mark Baden for his support with the blog and helping make this a continued success!

Sally Severson and Luke Sampe have great news too!  Sally and Luke are part of the 12 News Morning team that won 1st place in the category ‘Best Morning Newscast’!  Great job Sal and Luke!

Look for more exciting news from the Weather Watch 12 team in the coming weeks!  Make sure to leave us your thoughts and questions in the comments section.  We love to interact with our viewers!  Check out 12 News for the updates.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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9 Responses

  1. Glad to see you guys are getting your dues. I wonder what the winning radio station’s blog has that gave them the edge to first place.

    • Daniel,

      Not sure. But second is good, this way we can work harder to take home first place next year!

      Jeremy

  2. Nice work WeatherWatch 12!

  3. 12 Rocks!

  4. Nice work, guys! I appreciate this blog more than you all know 🙂

    • Thanks for reading and commenting! The interactive is great and we hope to build our audience over the next weeks, months, and years!

      Jeremy

  5. Did you dig those subzero dewpoints out in west Texas? That is crazy dry, RH values at 1%! I’ve NEVER seen that before. They need rain bad there…

    Congrats on your accolades WISN! I know you spend a great deal of time and effort on this blog, and it will only keep gathering steam! It is a great extra for all WISN viewers to experience.

    WED/THU should be interesting…

  6. Going to be getting used to “Cooler near the lake” the next few days…

    • Robert,

      A little cooler in most areas. Scattered showers and t-storms have arrived a few hours early. Thought the rain would hold off until after 4 today. The signature storm is underway:)

      Jeremy

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