Storms Possible Sunday…Severe Chances & Timing

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  Much warmer weather is in store for Sunday, that’s the good news.  The bad news, a chance of strong to severe storms will accompany the warmer weather.  In this blog entry we will look at the timing for Sunday’s potential storms, and also look at the locations that stand the best chance of seeing severe weather.

Let’s start with temperatures.  For the past several days, and most of this spring, you’ve heard ‘cooler by the lake’ quite a bit.  With winds more south to eventually southwest on Sunday, most lakeshore locations should warm into the 70s, with some inland areas touching 80.

Below is the RPM model’s forecast temperatures at 3pm.  Time to fashion the shorts and t-shirts!

Forecast Highs Sunday May 22

As the temperatures climb, so will the threat for severe weather.  The give and take this time of year is often warmer weather and a storm system, can equal strong to severe storms.  The Storm Prediction Center has included all of southern Wisconsin in it’s outlook as having a ‘slight risk’ for severe storms on Sunday.

SPC Day 2 Outlook May 22

The main threat for southeast Wisconsin with any storms would be large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rains within thunderstorms.  I think closer to the center of low pressure over west-central Wisconsin isolated tornado(s) may be possible.  Something we’ll watch closely as Sunday evolves.

So when are the storms possible in southeast Wisconsin?  The timing for storms looks to be late in the day.  Anywhere from late afternoon into the evening hours.  I think the most likely timing is after 6pm and that will likely continue through about midnight or 1am in areas.

Below is the RPM surface forecast at 9pm Sunday.  The red indicates what could be strong to severe storms.  Please keep in mind this is just one model’s forecast for Sunday.  However, I do believe that evening is the most likely time for storms to reach our part of the state.

RPM Sunday May 22

Finally, on Saturday morning I represented WISN 12 and helped kick-off the 1st ever Bay View Fox Run 5K to benefit the Healing Center.  It was a great morning, and it stayed dry for the runners and walkers.  The rain came in about when the event was wrapping up after 11am.  The turnout was fantastic, the picture below shows the long line at the registration tent around 9am.  I want to thank the organizers for inviting me to kick-off the run/walk!

Bay View Fox Run May 21

Make sure to watch WISN 12 News for the latest on the severe weather potential for Sunday.  And check back here, Facebook(Wisconsin Weather Updates), and Twitter(WISN12News) for additional updates throughout the weekend!

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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4 Responses

  1. Hi Jeremy,

    Will the storms be moving through quickly so that we don’t have to worry about too much rain?

    Thanks.

    • Lori,

      I think the storms will move along enough to prevent really heavy rain totals. But this time of year any intense storm that lingers can quickly drop 1″-2″ of rain. With that said, I think most areas stay below those totals, but storms that develop should produce at least a half inch if it catches your area. Thanks for the post.

      Jeremy

  2. Looks like ingredients for severe weather are really starting to mix and bubble in the large cauldron of atmosphere today. SPC has upped our area (or most of it) to a Moderate risk of Severe Weather. This doesn’t happen often for area, Jeremy, correct me if I’m wrong.

    We’ll have to keep our eyes; WISN12 will undoubtedly be on Weather Watch. 🙂

    Thanks for the updates Jeremy!

    Michael

    • Micahel,

      I’m going to do a quick update in the blog soon. May get really busy later today!

      Jeremy

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