Cool & Wet Now, Big Warm-up Looms

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Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  While severe weather continues to slam parts of the nation’s mid-section, southeast Wisconsin stayed in the rain, clouds, and cool temperatures on Wednesday.

Record rainfall drenched Milwaukee.  Through 4pm Wednesday, 1.34″ of rain fell at Milwaukee’s Mitchell Airport.  Breaking the daily rainfall record for May 25 of 1.22″ set in 1984.     

Below are the NEXRAD rainfall estimates.  Notice that some spots in far southeast Wisconsin saw around 2.00″ of rain on Wednesday!  If you have a total to share, please post it to the comments section of the blog.  

Rainfall Estimates May 25

As low pressure pushes northeast, more showers are possible tonight into very early Thursday.  After Thursday morning, the focus will shift to the holiday weekend.

If you remember back to the May-July forecast that was posted in the blog on April 30, it called for a big warm-up right around Memorial Day.  That warm-up is still on schedule!

The warmer air will surge north sometime Saturday night into Sunday.  As the warmer air lifts north it may trigger some showers and t-storms.  That threat would likely be present either Saturday night or the first half of Sunday.  Something we’ll keep a close eye on!

Here is the forecast surface map from the HPC for Sunday at 7 a.m.  Notice the warm front right on our doorstep.

Surface Map Sunday May 29

The warmest air, let’s call it hot, will take hold likely on Memorial Day.  Below is the GFS surface forecast map for Monday(Memorial Day).  This shows a south to southwest surface wind and hot temperatures.  Could this be the first 90 of the season in Miwaukee?  I really think we touch 90 either on Monday or Tuesday in Milwaukee!

GFS Memorial Day May 30

As the storm system pushes a cold front through, we can expect another chance of showers and t-storms either late Monday or on Tuesday.  We’ll watch closely to see if a severe weather threat exists.  A lot will depend on the timing of the front.

In the meantime, more cool weather for Thursday.  Just hang in there, the long weekend and warmer temperatures are almost here!

So let’s hear it bloggers…what will the warmest temperature be in Milwaukee at Mitchell airport from May 29-31?  I will say 91 degrees(I’m assuming we get sun and a southwest wind during peak heating on Monday or Tuesday).

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson


20 Responses

  1. we received .54″ storm total through 5 p.m. wednsday in juneau.

  2. .75 inches here in Menomonee Falls

  3. Jeremy–

    I’ll throw my hat into the ring and say 90 at Mitchell and 88 here in Reeseville in that time frame you refer too. We’ll keep track and see how well we did, OK?

    Also, I’ll bet it’s history by June 1.

    re: my fishing question — I checked your the long range and I’m presuming the time in June to avoid is the 7TH though 9TH? I take it you enjoy fishing too??

    Rain total so far here in Reeseville — 1″ exactly as of 5:45 p.m. Wednesday.


    • Two of the following three days after the big warm up in April were also more than 10 degrees above average so we might not see the cool down until the following weekend.

      • Daniel,

        I’m still sold that either Monday or Tuesday is the first 90 of the season. I won’t back done now:) But in the same light, anything 86 or warmer I’ll take. It’s clear the pattern continues to cycle and we have identified the warm part of the cycle once again before any other forecasters in our area. Hopefully the warm-up can hang on an extra day or two, we deserve it!


  4. Great post as always, Jeremy….. I say 89 officially at Mitchell…. do I win something if I’m right? 😛

    • Dan,

      Hmmm…you all win the knowledge of the LRC. It’s a powerful tool to use on your friends and family at get togethers! Who would believe we could pinpoint big warm-ups, or storm systems weeks or months in advance!


  5. 82, 89, 87

    I’m assuming clouds increase early enough on Tuesday to keep things in check, but if it is like this past Sunday where it is mainly sunny until the storms come in later in the afternoon, given the head start from the warmth in place already from Monday, I would say 92.

  6. How about that… not that it matters but the NWS finally picks up on the warmup… you folks should work for them so they can be set straight 🙂 Nice work as always in the confidence department, and nice work, LRC. 😛

  7. Thursday, May 26, 2011

    Rainfall report: As of 9am, picked up another 0.51 inches overnight. Presently getting light rain/drizzle with light NE wind.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  8. With the exception of a few nice days here or there, this has been the most horrid spring I can remeber. (I am sure there are worse ones but I can’t recall.) So are the cool periods this summer, mean cloudy and temps in the 50s’ and 60’s. I hope the pattern for next year gives us a bit more warmth and less of this dreck, the weather that Austin, Texas has looks pretty good right now….

    • Bryan,

      For this summer I would say that August is the wild card. We know what we are going to get in June/July overall. As the pattern fades August could potentially be the best month of the summer?


  9. The NWS has revised their Memorial Day forecast down from the upper-80’s to 80 (or possible upper 70s). Jeremy, do you see any models pointing to a cooler Monday, or are you still pushing for close to 90?

    Just curious…


    • Michael,

      I don’t let others forecasts influence the numbers I put out. There was another source I saw just 2 days ago forecasting 67 for Monday…while I still thought around 90.

      It appears the warm front will lift north early Monday morning. Winds should turn south-southwest. It is possible for a south to southeast wind to develop near Lake Michigan. But I still think the airport in Milwaukee should see highs of 85-90 on Monday. If the warm front is a bit quicker and winds go southwest, then 90 or a little better would be likely. This part of the pattern is 4/4, and I expect Monday-Tuesday to make it 5/5.


      • You ‘da man, Jeremy. Trust me, I don’t doubt you. If I was in Vegas, I’d put my money on 90F.

        I have a feeling that ‘others’ may rely too much or even exclusively on models…


    • During the course of last week, NWS slowly built the temp up to 82 for last Sunday in New Berlin, then dropped it to 78 the morning of… and guess what, we ended up getting to 85. They have a tendency to high tail their temps whenever one model develops a cooler solution and they usually end up wrong as a result. Similar circumstance with the very warm day before the past signature storm.

      As of this typing, Chicago NWS still has 88 on Memorial Day and the temp around here is usually within a degree or two of Chicago when the S to SW breeze is blowing.

  10. Kinda surprised that Josh hasn’t weighed in on this one yet. Hey Josh! You out there?

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  11. With lake temps in the 40’s right now and the lack of sunny days to warm it, I see the lake having a big influence on Milwaukee’s weather this summer. I think lakeside communities are going to get robbed of this weekend’s warmup once again with a south wind.

    • Dave,

      I think the biggest impact for a lake breeze on Monday would be Port Washington to Sheboygan, and also around Wind Point. Can’t discount some cooling in Milwaukee, but southwest winds should take over after Noon.


  12. Yeah, living in Sheboygan, several blocks from the lake has had it’s ups and downs. Our warmest temperature this year was just last Monday at 78. Prior to that, 68 was the warmest on April 10. Hoping at least Tuesday of next week is salvageable. Looks like a decent shot of a lake-breeze nullifying southwest wind. Even a westerly wind makes it warmer here. Anything other than a component of east.

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