Holiday Weekend Thoughts & 90s Near!

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  The unofficial start of summer is almost here…Memorial Day.  BBQ’s, parades, and honoring those that served and still serve our country will bring people out in big numbers this weekend.  The big question, what will the weather be like?

After two consecutive days with highs in the 40s in Milwaukee, a warm-up will push highs from the 50s to near 90 over the next four days!  So we could go from sweatshirts and jackets this weekend to shorts and t-shirts by Monday.  Along with the warmer weather, we will have to dodge raindrops from time to time this weekend.

Rain chances appear to be the highest on Saturday as of this writing.  Something we will continue to update on WISN 12 News in over the next few days.  My recommendation is to have a plan ‘B’ ready to roll on Saturday and Sunday in case rain finds your backyard!

While no severe weather is expected on Saturday, clouds and rain showers could put a damper on the start of the weekend.  Below is the RPM forecast map at 4pm Saturday.  This shows showers over southern Wisconsin, and maybe isolated t-storms.

RPM Rain Sunday May 29

Even if Saturday turns out to be wet at times, there will be several dry hours in the day.  So don’t cancel any plans yet.  And remember you can track the possible rain on interactive radar at home or on the go.  Just click below:

Interactive Radar

On Sunday, a warm front will begin to push north through the Midwest.  I think the front will stay south of Wisconsin on Sunday, meaning southeast winds and seasonal temperatures.  Highs will greatly depend on cloud cover and possible showers on Sunday.  Below is the RPM temperature forecast at 4pm Sunday.  This has 60s near the lake, with readings closer to 70 inland. 

RPM Temperatures Sunday May 22

By Monday the warm front will surge north of Milwaukee.  This will mean surface winds will switch to the south-southwest.  Below is the surface forecast map from the HPC for Memorial Day.  The warm front north of our area is a great sign if you love warm/hot temperatures!

Surface Map Memorial Day

If you follow the blog you know that the possible highs around 90 for Monday have been talked about right here in the blog for the past MONTH!  How is the possible?  We use a weather pattern theory called the LRC to make accurate long range forecasts.  This theory helped us provide an accurate overview of the winter season, and also pinpoint specific weather events and when they would occur since around December.

Here is part of the April 30 Weather Watch 12 blog that discussed the May-July long range temperature forecast for southeast Wisconsin.  Notice the bold and italics highlighting the 90 degree potential for May 30-31!

————————————————————

Temperatures

  • Below average
  • Less than 11 – 90 degree days in Milwaukee

Discussion:  Average monthly temperatures have been below average for the past 5 months.  Only about 1 degree below average, but this trend will be tough to break.  Last summer we had a number of above average months going into summer, and that result continued.  So for the next several months I expect the average monthly temperature to remain below average. 

If cold air spills in on the backside of the May ‘signature’ storm like it did in March, the potential for a late season frost can’t be ruled out.  IF that was to occur the possible date ranges would be May 13-18.  This time of year the coldest overnight readings generally occur inland on clear, calm nights.

In looking at the overall pattern I think the hottest temperature in Milwaukee will be 93 degrees.  That would likely occur with one of the bigger features in the pattern.  With that said I think the first chance at 90 degrees would come around May 30-31.  Then, if the pattern holds together another run to possibly the warmest temperature of the summer around July 19. 

—————————————————————–

If you are interested, here is the complete long range forecast for May-July.

Summer Forecast

Have a happy and safe holiday weekend, and make sure to check back here for updates all weekend long!  And if you ever have weather questions or thoughts, please post them to the comments section of the blog.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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7 Responses

  1. Jeremy~

    Thanks for the weekend update. I am wondering if you think we will see severe weather on Sunday or if you think the cap will hold?

    Thanks~Lori

    • Lori,

      Saturday and Sunday don’t look like severe wx days at this point. We’ll keep an eye on the weekend though.

      Jeremy

  2. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts folks.

  3. Jeremy,

    How do winds and dewpoints look Monday mid-morning?

    Thanks!

    Michael

    • Justin,

      Once the warm front moves north, dew points should be in the 60s. Winds south of the front around 10-25.

      Jeremy

  4. Many other weather forecasts are not saying close to 90 degrees, but closer to 80 degrees. Is there a chance the warm front won’t quite make it here and we’ll be stuck in the 70’s? Also, for sunday the SPC puts us under a very slight risk of severe storms, only 5%. Could our severe weather chances increase as the forecast gets clearer?

    • Justin,

      I can only control the numbers I put in the forecast. A quick scan shows 78, 80, 82, and 84 for other numbers from other sources for Monday. Just a few days ago two of those had highs in the 60s for Monday. As of now I see highs around 90, until something shows me otherwise I’m stuck around 90. We should be very close to a record high on Monday.

      Of all the days this holiday weekend Sunday is the toughest forecast in my opinion. The location and timing of possible storms and temps are tricky. Severe chances in my opinion look very low Sat/Sun for us.

      Jeremy

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