Hot Weather Not Done This Week

Hot weather again today with a high of 85. After yesterday’s high of 88, it really is feeling like summer. A cold front came through late this afternoon with only a few storms. We were fortunate to avoid severe storms thanks to the squall line that developed last night across the Dakota’s, Nebraska, and Minnesota. As these storms died out this morning, some of the clouds from the remnants of those storms moved into our area. This helped keep our instability down in southeast Wisconsin. We had some strong storms develop in our northern counties, but they stayed under severe limits. Where it was sunny most of the day across Michigan, the storms have been severe with many reports of damaging winds.

Speaking of damaging winds, today is the anniversary of one of the worst storms to ever hit southeast Wisconsin. On May 31st, 1998, a derecho slammed through Wisconsin, especially hard hit was the southern half of the state.  A derecho is a long-lived straight line wind storm. The 1998 event brought numerous wind gusts above 100 miles per hour across our area. This was the first derecho that I had ever been a part of. It was truly amazing. Probably worse than any tornado outbreak that I have ever seen in our area. The damage was very widespread. Milwaukee Skywarn sent out a nice write-up on the event today. Click on the link for a full description.

MAY 31st.1998 doc

Thankfully, we have not seen one in our area since that time. Nothing like that in our forecast.

Our weather will be a little cooler tomorrow, but very comfortable with lower humidity and a high in the mid 70s. Thursday will be the coolest day of the week as the wind turns back to the east. Friday’s wind direction goes back to the southwest and the heat will be back on. Highs will be well into the 80s and a few temps near 90 are possible. Here is the forecast temperatures for Friday at 1pm.

Enjoy the warm weather. We have earned it after our chilly and cloudy spring.

Mark

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11 Responses

  1. Interesting that we spent all of May talking about the big warm up that was going to happen around Memorial Day and now we have another coming a mere 4 days later that just kind of snuck up on us.

    The pattern at the surface is really going to produce different results compared to the last time through the cycle. Using your forecast and starting with today’s results, here is the high temp deviation compared to normal…

    From last cycle (April 10 – 17)…
    +32, +12, +1, +13, -8, -10, -11, -2

    This cycle (May 31 – June 7)…
    +13, +3, -9, +14, +12, +4, +8, +6

    • Daniel,

      Good research. From my limited understanding of the LRC, it will start to lose some punch as we head into the summer months. The big events will still be noticeable and the overall trends will be there, but the day-to-day forecasts are not as easy to link.

      The key for the temperatures this week is the wind direction. Those days in April were with easterly winds. Most of this week will have west and southwest winds.

      Mark

    • What is equally interesting is that it was POSSIBLE to spend a whole month in advance talking about a huge warm up that actually happened!

      😉

      As Mark cautioned, the summer time LRC pattern really begins to weaken. Even beyond that, over time you will find that the surface does not always play along…largely because of the synoptic/mesoscale nature of the LRC vs. microscale of a point temperature trend. I think if one were to apply the temp trends to a larger area, it would seem to match up more. Lastly, I would think one would have to apply a type of seasonal variable based on the jet location. Because of the variability at the surface involving friction and other variables, it gets pretty noisy at times at the surface from a statistical standpoint.

      • Thanks, Scott. Let’s see LRC nailed blizzards, cold snaps, warm-ups pretty much to the day. Jeremy did a great job identifying the pattern and making solid forecasts. I’m still amazed.

        Mark

  2. What’s the purpose/function of the ‘hovercards’? Anybody???

    Cordially,
    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Tony,

      I had to look up what a hovercard was? I guess you can use it to move over a person’s name and up comes the contact information.

      Mark

      • Hey Mark,

        Sorry to make extra work for you. I figured that everyone else but me knew the purpose of those icons. I was hesitant to click on one and experiment. I’ve learned long ago that just because you can click on something doesn’t necessarily mean you should! Anyway, after your reply, I ‘right-clicked’ on your icon and had it open in a separate window. It’s about the individuals profile if he/she has one. Bottom line is that it really doesn’t have much to do specifically with the WW12 blog. I guess I haven’t been missing out on anything!

        Cordially,
        Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  3. Looking like a nice run of warm weather, long term GFS unfortunately has a cool down in mid June around the 18th. I loved the hot and sunny weather yesterday.

    • Bryan,

      The key will be to enjoy the nice weather when we have it. This coming weekend is looking pretty good.

      Mark

  4. Hi —

    I thought the LRC was holding us to a “cooler than average” summer?? So what’s up with another round of heat and humidity for the weekend?? Did something change within the LRC already?

    Don

    • Don,

      Nothing has changed with LRC. I think we will still end up with an overall cooler than average summer, but that does not mean every day will be chilly.
      Thanks.
      Mark

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