Weekend Weather O.K.

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  The weekend is here!  And overall I think weather conditions should be okay for Saturday and Sunday.  Not perfect, but we’ll call it ‘nice’. 

Before we talk about the weekend, let’s take a look back to a huge temperature spread that occurred across southeast Wisconsin on Friday.  Around 3pm a southeast wind was keeping lakeshore locations cooler.  Port Washington was 53 degrees, Milwaukee 74, and Madison a record tying 91 degrees! 

Below is the surface map at 3:43pm Friday.  Just click on it to enlarge.  The temperatures are in red, and the wind barbs give a good indication of why Milwaukee was cooler than surrounding inland locations.

Surface Map Friday June 3

Moving forward the focus is on rain chances through early afternoon Saturday.  While I think a few showers or isolated t-storms will occur in southeast Wisconsin, the chances don’t look very impressive.

Below is the GFS computer model forecast for 1pm Saturday.  The green shades indicate precipitation, and the darker the green the heavier the model is forecasting the precipitation to be.  With that said, as a cold front passes by our area on Saturday, a few showers are possible, but it does not look like a widespread heavy rain by any means.

GFS Forecast Saturday, June 4

The threat for showers will exit most of the area by 1-3pm.  If the cold front slows down locations near the WI/IL border may see a t-storm or two nearby during peak heating in the afternoon.  Severe weather potential looks to stay mainly in Illinois for Saturday.

As for temperatures, winds will be southwest to northwest, meaning the lake breeze should stay offshore for much of the day.  Lakeshore locations should warm into 70s or lower 80s! 

By Sunday, the winds will swing around to an easterly direction so it will be much cooler near the lake.  Likely around 70 in Milwaukee, but I wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures dropped back into the 60s right along the lake.  Again it will be warmer the farther you move inland.

Below is the RPM forecast map for Sunday.  The black features are ‘wind barbs’ and the one near Milwaukee indicates a general east wind.  But with sunshine, Sunday is still looking ‘nice’.

RPM Sunday Forecast June 5

Make sure to enjoy some of the events going on across southeast Wisconsin this weekend.  From the beaches opening in Waukesha county, to the Mitchell Street Sun Fair, or the Scottish Fest at Hart Park.  Take in what the summer season has to offer! 

Have a great weekend!

Jeremy Nelson

 

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16 Responses

  1. re: Weekend Forecast

    I Like It!:) Don’t change a thing!

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Tony…so far I have no intention of changing the weekend forecast.

      Jeremy

  2. Thanks for the update. Looks good.

    I’m a tad surprised you didn’t mention the tornado watch for northern and central wisconsin. Yes, it doesn’t affect us, but it may for travelers.

    Again, it’s only another 3 hours or so. 🙂

    Michael

    • Michael,

      I talked about it on our newscasts. But the storms really never developed much, and the watch was cancelled for areas closest to southeast Wisconsin. And I try to write ahead in the blog. If the watch was for our immediate area then yes I would talk about it. Good question.

      Jeremy

      • Yep, just looked at the radar and you’re right.

        Except, I don’t believe I’d want to be cruise boating around the Apostle Islands right now. Whoa!

        Michael

  3. What are your weather thoughts about the beginning of next week..
    Mon-Wed. ???

  4. Happy Saturday, Jeremy and Fellow Bloggers!

    I got the last of my planting done this a.m. No rain as of yet — At times, it’s overcast –other times, full sun. At 6:30 a.m. when I got started outside, it was really humid and still, but then a nice beeze came up and it felt really refreshing. As the morning progressed however, it got more humid again — some breeze — but not as windy as it has been other days.

    Today’s question — When you put out the long range LRC inspired summer forecast, with the cooler than normal temps, above average rain — did you mean just for MKE and near shore counties — or does that cover us inland folks too?

    Another thing I noticed — I am quite surprised how dry the ground is despite all the snowmelt and the wet spring we’ve had. More evaporation than soaking into the ground??? I don’t want to ruin anyone’s fun — but we could use a nice soaking rain — not a big downpour that just runs off like in a t-storm.

    Have a great weekend everyone! I know I will — I actually have a Sunday off!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Don {Reeseville}

    • Still 88 in New Berlin as of 2pm, so the cold front isn’t doing its job. The humid air is gone though.

      Yeah, this part of the pattern has me a little confused as well. This is more like in fall when we had lengthy runs of above average temps. Now, the forecast area has a third shot at 90 (according to the NWS next Wednesday) within a week and a half period. Late next week looks like a change in the pattern though, so we’ll see where things go from there.

      • Daniel,

        In looking back we are repeating much of April right now. When I made the April forecast there was a part of the LRC pattern that produced above average temperatures over a 30 day span each time through the cycle, but then was below for April. So temperatures being above average to start June isn’t too surprising, but I think once a wetter period returns temps will even out some. And I do think the rain will turn back on especially near the middle and end fo the month.

        Jeremy

    • Don,

      I tried my hand at a garden for the first time as a homeowner. I’m getting mixed results but will learn from this year. One thing I need to do is trim some tree branches that are only allowing partial sun to the back half of the garden.

      The LRC forecast is for everyone. Remember that inland areas do have slightly higher average temperatures than Milwaukee. Madison is a good spot to watch this month for temps. And yes, some rain would be welcome by many. I think we see rain this week, but it may be spotty again through Thursday.

      Enjoy your Sunday off!

      Jeremy

  5. Saturday, June 4, 2011

    Just back home after a couple of hours near the lake front of downtown Kenosha. Was getting a bit overcast and a NE breeze/wind was kicking in. Also a bit of light fog. Surprisingly it didn’t feel cold! Was still acceptable T-shirt weather.
    The only problem I have with springtime ‘cooler near the lake’ is that more often than not it’s really ‘cold near the lake’! Yesterday was pretty nice at my house, but a visitor this morning was mentioning that it was pretty darn cold only about ½ mile inland from the lake shore.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Tony,

      Thanks for the update. Yeah…sometimes the ‘cool’ is ‘cold’ to some.

      Jeremy

  6. How can we have these two days in a row of 90 degree temps with wicked humidity, and not see any rain or storms. All week long people had been calling for storms for Friday, and Saturday. But not a single rain drop so far! What happened? Where is the weather? When can we expect a good thunderstorm?

    • Scott,

      It is all about the timing for the front. On Friday, the warm front was for the most part north of our area, keeping showers and storms in central/northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Then Saturday morning a cold front slipped through our area. By the time it reached N IL in the afternoon during peak heating showers and storms developed. While we did have a chance of showers or storms in the forecast leading up to today, I did mention many times when I was on Friday that today’s rain chance was about 30%.

      So while we missed the storms, it wasn’t anything crazy that happened, just the timing of both fronts in our area didn’t quite line up with the best dynamics for producing storms. Keep this in mind through Thursday of this week. Timing will again be key to our rain chances.

      Jeremy

  7. Thanks for the fast reply! I have been watching, and I did catch it when you said that chances were only about 30% in favor of rain or storms. It’s just with as hot and humid as it’s been, I was hoping that 30% would realize itself. It was very informative though to learn that the passage of fronts did not correlate with peak heating. I will keep my fingers crossed going into the week that we will see some rain. Also you guys had mentioned based on LRC, that we should be coming into an active weather pattern. Is that still the trend? Thank you for your time. I love the weather, I love this blog, and I have found the WISN news team to be more accurate and precise than any other team in Wisconsin! Thanks again, Jeremy!

    • Scott,

      It’s great to have you as a part of the blog community! I just did a new blog, so check that out, it discusses the potentially more active pattern ahead.

      Jeremy

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