Concern For Severe Storms Tuesday

What a crazy morning in Milwaukee. One cluster of thunderstorms dumped very heavy rain over downtown creating flash flooding on the east side. Riverside High School had significant flooding and some cars were stranded in the high water.

Check out the link for Marianne Lyles story about the flooding:

http://www.wisn.com/news/28298887/detail.html#.Tf_nSN60MTY;email

Take a look at the radar estimate of rainfall in Milwaukee.

The rainfall was very concentrated in the downtown area. Most parts of SE Wisconsin picked up less than 1/4″ of rain. 2″ of rain fell in about one hour.

I am becoming concerned about Tuesday’s severe weather setup for our area. A strong low pressure center will slowly move closer to our area pushing a warm front into Southeast Wisconsin.  The big question is how much sunshine we will get tomorrow. If we get a lot of sun, I am worried for a pretty big outbreak of severe weather. This would include the possibility of tornadoes. Here is the risk from the Storm Prediction Center.

I would not be surprised to see the risk raised to moderate for Tuesday. Here is the RPM computer model for 4pm tomorrow.

Note the individual cells moving through the area. Because of the proximity of the low pressure center, there will be plenty of shear available to get these storms spinning. I am hoping the storms that are currently across Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa produce enough cloudiness that we stay cloudy tomorrow. If that does not happen and we are sunny, the atmosphere will become very unstable. Please stay tuned throughout the day tomorrow. Stay safe.

Mark

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18 Responses

  1. didn’t we have severe weather last year on the 21st of June, a tornado even? It is my daughters birthday, I remember it well. Now a possible repeat this year:( No beach for us tomorrow I guess!

    • Kate,
      Tomorrow is the anniversary of the Eagle tornado. Let’s hope for no repeat.
      Mark

  2. Mark,

    Isn’t it ironic that tomorrow is the 1 year anniversary of the muskego and eagle tornados and you’re forecasting a chance for them tomorrow? The one last year went 1 mile north of me! Hopefully everyone will stay safe tomorrow.

    Bryan

  3. Yes, I believe the Eagle tornado was on June 21 last year.

  4. Mark, the link to the video has a Microsoft Exchange server URL attached to it.

    • Steve,

      I will try to repost. You can also check out the story and more of the flooding videos on our home page. Thanks.

      Mark

  5. I don’t know if I’m reading this incorrectly, but the 0z NAM makes Wednesday look more troublesome for severe storms as the low is closer and that morning looks like we’re in a dry slot which would mean warm temps and sun which usually produce the supercells. Tomorrow just looks cloudy all day which should inhibit some of the growth.

    • Daniel,

      It all depends on sunshine. Either day could go severe or both. I’m not convinced we will stay cloudy tomorrow. I think we will get a fair amount of sunshine.

      Mark

  6. This is an awfully strong storm system for this time of the year, isn’t it? Looks more like something we would see in early Spring rather then the first day of Summer.

    Do you have any idea of the future track of this low? I have an event in upstate New York at the end of the week into the weekend and I was wondering if this low would travel East or veer off Northeast towards Lake Superior.

    • Dave,

      This storm heads toward Hudson Bay. However, there is another low pressure center that will affect the East Coast and New England this weekend.

      Mark

  7. Thanks for the info Mark! I’ll keep an eye on it!

  8. Mark – wish we could send the +15 C 700mb temps we have had in the last week. I suspect that would help ease your concerns. 😉

  9. This is for Tony from Pleasant Prairie —

    Thanks for the concern about our fundraiser last Saturday. Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner. We did really well, raising close to $700, and we did not get any rain — it was just cloudy and humid and there was a breeze that kept switching directions on us, so it was hard to keep the grill smoke from getting in our eyes. But at least it wasn’t really hot.

    Thanks again for caring!

    Don — Reeseville

    • Well the sun is starting to come out, at least where I live in southern milwaukee county. Temps and dewpoints are goingup, so we’ll have to see what happens. The SPC still has only a slight risk, but with the sun starting to come out i dont know.

    • Hi Don,

      Glad to hear all went well enough for you. No need to apologize about the reply time; but thanks for the consideration.

      Cordially,
      Tony (Pl. Prairie)

  10. Areas south of the warm front, generally south of Milwaukee are really heating up. Is this where we should be looking for storm development, and will the fog clear out when the warm front sweeps through? How far do you think the front gets?

  11. Theres a trampoline in the middle of the street in pewaukee wisconsin from storms that hit around 340.

    • Kary,

      Thank you for the report! Those were some very strong winds!

      Jeremy

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