Sunshine Ahead & June Rain Totals

***Watch WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  After days of on and off rain, the showers will finally shut off for about 36-72 hours.  Certainly good news if you are looking to mow your lawn, or give your garden some time to dry out.

So far most of the upper Midwest has recorded above average rainfall in June.  Here is a look at rain totals from around the region through June 23.  If you have a monthly total please post it to the comments section of the blog!

  • La Crosse  8.61″
  • Greenfield  6.80″
  • Green Bay  4.88″
  • Madison  3.53″
  • Milwaukee  3.47″
  • Chicago – O’Hare  3.36″

I find it amazing how close the Madison, Milwaukee, and Chicago totals are.  Pockets of the Milwaukee metro area have seen well over 4″ of rain this month.

The faucet will be turned off both Friday and Saturday in our area.  Along with the dry weather, sunshine will also return.  To kick off the weekend I think we may start Saturday with 100% sunshine!  Below is one way of forecasting cloud cover.  This map from the NAM computer model plots moisture in various levels of the atmosphere.  Generally the higher the moisture, the better chance for clouds to develop.  Low clouds a in green, made up of water, while high clouds are in blue and made of ice crystals.

Notice on the map below that the atmosphere should be dry to start Saturday meaning lots of sun.  

Cloud Cover June 25

With some sun back in the forecast, temperatures will warm into the 70s.  Below is the RPM temperature forecast at 4pm Saturday.  I labeled a couple of the temperature contours.  The cooler 60s in Minnesota are due to clouds and rain showers.

RPM Temperatures Saturday June 25

Any threat for rain in our area should hold off until Saturday night or early Sunday.  This ‘chance’ is a big question mark because a lot will hinge on the exact path that a complex of showers and storms takes Saturday night.  We’ll fine tune the rain chance as we get a little closer to late Saturday.  In the meantime, don’t cancel any outdoor plans. 

There is a lot going on in our area this weekend including Greek Fest at State Fair Park, Cedarburg’s Strawberry Festival, and the Brewers taking on the Twins.

While rain chances appear to be low this weekend, that will change by Monday.  A warm front, and also a cold front will near the area.  Right now it appears that showers and storms will be likely later Monday, and with more moisture around some quick hitting heavy rains will again be possible.

The HPC surface map for Monday shows the set-up at 7am.

Surface Monday June 27

For more on the weekend and next week…which includes the start of Summerfest on Wednesday…check out 12 News for the lastest 7 day forecast.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

 

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8 Responses

  1. Thanks for the update Jeremy. How much rain can we expect on Monday? Your use of the word heavy worries me. Also I was wondering if you think rain totals in July will also be above normal? Thanks.

    Lori

    • Lori,

      I could see 1″+ in some spots again. When I made the summer forecast I leaned toward June being the wettest month. July should bring some warmer spells, and enough rain to keep us happy.

      Jeremy

  2. I just had to post this even though it is typical overkill by the ECMWF model over a week out…

    For those wondering what this is suggesting, it it stating the temps at the 850 level will be 26+ Celsius. From reading NWS write ups every day, it is known that when this level gets up to 20 Celsius and we have sunshine, we get near 90 degrees. So if this verified, we’d be looking at possibly hitting 100 next Friday.

    Again, the ECMWF exaggerates these numbers during the long range so it is very unlikely to get this hot.

    • Daniel,

      Outside of the model exaggerating the warm-up, another thing to consider is how high dew points would be. Once dew points get into the 70s sometimes it is tough to push to the mid-90s or above.

      At least we’ll finally see 80s and maybe some 90s soon.

      Jeremy

  3. Thursday, June 23, 2011 9:17 pm

    Jeremy,

    I took a quick look through my copy of rainfall posts. Think I got it right:)
    6/9 > 0.80″
    6/10 > 0.80″
    6/15 – 6/16 > 0.47″
    6/21 > 0.65″
    Sub total > 2.72″
    Today’s additional > 0.05″

    Thus, monthly total through today is 2.77 inches.

    Tony (Pl. Prairie)

    • Thanks Tony! Last summer you guys were lower than most areas too.

      Jeremy

  4. Sheboygan Storm Total:
    Sunday: 0.44 in.
    Monday: 0.22 in.
    Tuesday: 1.21 in.
    Wednesday: 0.73 in.
    Thursday: 1.34 in.
    Storm Total: 3.94 inches
    Our monthly total now stands at 4.99 inches

  5. 4.60″ for June here at OSNW3 in North Oshkosh. Just under an inch above average. 4 out of the past 5 Junes my backyard has been above the Oshkosh long term average (71-00), this may change once the new averages are available. The link below offers up more data if interested…

    http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/obsrv.html

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