Monday Rain Chances & ‘Dry Spell’ Ahead

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  How about the weather to end the weekend!  Wasn’t that perfect?

More sunny and mild days are in the forecast, but Monday is not one of them.  Showers and thunderstorms return Monday at about any point in the day.  A storm system will push through the upper Midwest, and along with it provide a good chance of scattered showers and storms.  Below is the forecast surface map at 1pm Monday.   

Surface Monday June 27

Notice that the warm front stays south of Milwaukee, so highs will stay in check, likely in the 70s.  While a strong or isolated severe storm can’t be ruled out…the best chance for severe storms will stay near and south of the warm front in Illinois.

A model that I look at whenever precipitation is possible, but rarely show in the blog is the RUC(Rapid Update Cycle) computer model, which updates every hour!  On Sunday evening the model went out through about noon Monday.  This high resolution model is painting showers and storms in southeast Wisconsin at 10am Monday shown below. 

RUC Monday June 27

While it is tough to nail down the timing of convective storms, I do think anytime from sunrise to sunset on Monday there scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.  Parts of the area should see a half inch or more of rain.  There will be some 1″ totals in Wisconsin, but pinning down exactly where the heaviest of the rain travels is again tough.

By mid-week the rain and clouds of spring and early summer will be a distant memory to most.  A nice stretch of weather will take hold just in time for the start of Summerfest.  Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should top out in the comfortable 70s in Milwaukee. 

Below is the NAM(North American Model) forecast temperature map at 7pm Wednesday…when many will flock to the lakeshore to eagerly await the Big Bang fireworks celebration!  Right along the lake temperatures by 9pm will be in the 60s on Wednesday.

NAM Temperatures June 29

Temperatures will warm back into the 80s for the first time since June 8 in Milwaukee on either Thursday or Friday.  As the warm and humid air pushes in a shower or t-storm can’t be ruled out.  Timing may be Friday night or Saturday as of this writing. 

The focus right now is on the rain for Monday.  Make sure to post any rain totals you have to the blog or our Facebook page.

On a side note…the Weather Watch 12 blog will be undergoing some changes this week.  The biggest change may be to the comments section.  You will still be able to leave comments, but the look and feel will be different.  Once the format changes please let us know what you like and what you would like changed.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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5 Responses

  1. I work outside any Idea how soon the rain will start in the morning ???
    What dose it look like for the Verona area ???
    That is the job site …
    Thanks ..
    Rich G.

    • Rich,

      I use to live in Verona! The Madison area will see rain earlier, possibly before 8am. One model I looked at pretty much takes the rain north and south of our area on Monday, but I’m not buying that. I think we at the very least see scattered showers and storms. Not an all day rain, but wet at times.

      Jeremy

  2. Thanks !!!

    I have a 90 mi. ride don’t want to get there only to turn around and head home..
    The sooner the rain the sooner the possibility of a call not to come in..

  3. jeremy, looks like all the rain took a dive to our south and the rain that was to our west this morning dyed out before it got to columbia county. was there to much dry air in place. will we see storms redevelop this afternoon ? the sun just came out in dodge county now.

  4. Hi, Jeremy and Mark —

    I was expecting rain this morning too — bone dry here in Reeseville {Dodge County} all day so far. Also, very warm and humid here — 85 degrees with 69% humidity. A few dark clouds, but any cloudiness is just drifting south to north. Where did the storm system go?

    Don

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