Number Crunching & Great Fireworks Forecast

***Watch WISN 12 News for the latest weather information!***

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog!  I hope you and your family are having a great holiday weekend!  Weatherwise we lose the humidity for Sunday, but keep most of our sunshine around. 

The good news is there are no storms in the forecast through Monday.  We continue to receive pictures from the storm that hit eastern Racine and Kenosha counties last Thursday.  Tony, one of our bloggers from Pleasant Prairie sent this picture in of the sky as the wind approached at 8:18pm on June 30.

Pleasant Prairie June 30

We’ll talk plenty about the forecast for the holiday weekend in a moment.

First, I wanted to pass along some numbers that I thought were fascinating.  Overall temperatures have been below average in Milwaukee so far in 2011.  But something I noticed really stood out in my mind…the lack of days at or above 80 degrees.  In looking at January through June, there were only 10 days with highs of 80 or warmer.

I discussed this with someone at the NWS in Milwaukee, and found that in the past 37 years, the first 6 months of the year have produced 10 or fewer highs of 80+ only 3 times!  Here are the years…

  • 2011
  • 1992
  • 1974
  • Since 1800s this has occurred 23 times in Milwaukee

That was interesting stat number one.  The second stat relates to the ‘signature’ storm which just impacted our area again in the past couple of days.  This time through the main energy with the low was to our north, but severe weather occurred late on June 30, and then windy conditions both June 30 and July 1.  If you are wondering what is this ‘signature’ storm I’m talking about.  Just click on the link below to find out more about the weather pattern and a review of the summer forecast.

Summer Forecast & LRC Explainer

One result of the ‘signature’ storm almost every time through the cycle has been gusty winds.  The ‘signature’ storm first appeared in late October, and has cycled back 5 more times in the repeating weather pattern.  From late October to July 1 that is a span of roughly 250 days.

In those 250 days, Milwaukee recorded wind gusts of 40mph or greater on 24 different days.  Of those 24 days, 10 of them were during one of the ‘signature’ storms!  This means that about 42% of the wind gusts of 40mph or greater occurred with a storm system that appeared 6 times between October 26 and July 1!  

The ‘signature’ storm will always be the feature that defined the LRC of 2010-2011, but the pattern isn’t done quite yet.  Let’s see if July 19 brings some hot weather back to southeast Wisconsin!

No hot weather in the forecast for the rest of the holiday weekend, but certainly warm.  High pressure is dropping into the western Great Lakes for the next 2 days and with it a lot less in the way of humidity, and also slightly cooler temperatures.

Below is the surface forecast map for Sunday at 1pm.  The big ‘H’ will deliver a nice Sunday.

Surface Sunday July 3

The comfortable weather should hang on into the 4th of July.  The dew points may increase a bit later in the day, but overall dew points should be in the 50s to low 60s…which is hard to beat this time of year.  Below is the dew point forecast map from the NAM computer model for Monday.  Dry weather should prevail in southeast Wisconsin through Monday too.

Dew Point 4th July

With great weather have a blast at the fireworks celebrations in our area!  Make sure to watch WISN 12 News for the updates all weekend long.

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

 

 

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4 Responses

  1. Any possibilities of Rain in the next couple(4) of days ???
    Thanks
    Rich G….

    • Rich,

      Mayber later Tuesday. Rain chances look low overall this week. And there is only about 1 or 2 chances as of now.

      Jeremy

  2. Looks like the main part of the signature storm went through the Dakotas, Minnesota, and NW Wisconsin last night with all those wind damage reports. Sad story about that girl getting killed too.

    Looks like the pattern has weakened enough to let go of its grip of cool and wet weather (9 days now without measurable rain in New Berlin and more to come). It figures that just when the average temp has gotten high enough for me to want below average temps, it starts to fade out. At least we got lucky to miss the brunt of the pre-signature storm warm-up. Almost 100 to our west in La Crosse yesterday and almost 100 to our east in Detroit today.

    • Daniel,

      The signature storms have almost always brought us some sort of easterly breeze. This time southeast for the most part keeping Friday in the 80s for most areas.

      Jeremy

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