Happy 4th of July from Weather Watch 12. It was a wonderful 3-day weekend of weather. Highs in the 80s all three days. I hope you all enjoyed the great weather.
Jeremy mentioned it yesterday, but we are in our longest streak of the year without measurable rainfall. Today makes 11 days. After many cloudy, snowy, and rainy days for the first half of 2011, this streak has been nice. It is amazing how fast the surface soil dries. We could actually use some rain. We have a chance late tomorrow, but not a great chance. A cold front will move through Wisconsin on Tuesday arriving in our area late in the afternoon. A few storms are possible along the front. We will monitor for a slight chance of severe weather. Here is our high-resolution model for tomorrow afternoon at 5pm.
The RPM model is more liberal in putting in storms than the other models. For those of you hoping for rain, I hope the RPM verifies. I have mentioned this before, but the RPM has a very good track record for a 24 hour forecast. It is my model of choice for a one-day forecast. Here are the NAM and GFS models for Tuesday evening.
I would not count on getting rainfall, but a few locations in our area will likely at least get some rain. The rest of the week looks dry and sunny. Cooler and less humid air will be around Wednesday-Friday.
The sunny skies, light winds, and warm temperatures the last few days have dramatically warmed Lake Michigan. The surface water has warmed more than 10 degrees in one week. When there is light winds, upwelling does not occur. Upwelling is when the cooler waters in the deeper sections of the lake are transported to the surface. This happens when wind pushes the surface water and allows the cooler waters to move upward. Take a look at the lake surface temperature as measured from space.
Keep in mind this is the surface. It is much cooler just a few feet down. Here are temperatures of Lake Michigan for the last five years.
Most of this spring and early summer have been below the temperatures of the last few years. If we continue to have light winds, that could change.
Have a great week.